Home > Uncategorized > Player Aging Part 1

Player Aging Part 1

This will be the first post of a yet to be determined number of posts as I investigate aging curves for various stats.  Gabe over at Behind the Net has already done quite a bit of work on this topic, so some of this will be a rehashing of things he’s already investigated.  Our methodology differs slightly (honestly his is likely better) so the results, while similar, won’t be the same.  For the first pass I chose to use the delta method with no correction for survival bias.  What does this mean?  I took all players that played both an age 18 and 19 season and calculated their increase/decrease in the various stats.  I then calculated the same for all age pairs.  Once that’s done I found a weighted average of the increases/decreases for each age pair where the weight is equal to the minimum number of games played between the two ages.

The first stat I chose to look at is pts/game.  My input data is 2001-2010.  The following table summarizes the results by general position

Age All F D
18_19 0.140 0.160 -0.108
19_20 0.068 0.072 0.052
20_21 0.026 0.026 0.023
21_22 0.049 0.050 0.045
22_23 0.023 0.025 0.018
23_24 0.010 0.022 -0.018
24_25 0.002 -0.009 0.024
25_26 0.020 0.027 0.007
26_27 -0.022 -0.021 -0.023
27_28 -0.027 -0.039 -0.003
28_29 -0.024 -0.022 -0.028
29_30 -0.012 -0.030 0.017
30_31 -0.038 -0.044 -0.028
31_32 -0.052 -0.069 -0.022
32_33 -0.045 -0.057 -0.021
33_34 -0.057 -0.062 -0.048
34_35 -0.067 -0.079 -0.046
35_36 -0.080 -0.083 -0.071
36_37 -0.058 -0.074 -0.022
37_38 -0.043 -0.042 -0.044
38_39 -0.089 -0.128 -0.002
39_40 -0.070 -0.073 -0.063

The table shows the age pair in the first column and then the respective increase/decrease in the other three columns.  These numbers seem to indicate a peak around 26.  The following graph shows the same data in graphical form

I also ran a similar analysis on average time on ice (ATOI).  Here’s the table

ATOI
18_19 2.62
19_20 0.93
20_21 0.90
21_22 1.18
22_23 0.82
23_24 0.59
24_25 0.57
25_26 0.32
26_27 0.03
27_28 0.05
28_29 0.03
29_30 -0.10
30_31 -0.30
31_32 -0.54
32_33 -0.48
33_34 -0.78
34_35 -0.70
35_36 -1.13
36_37 -0.97
37_38 -0.83
38_39 -0.96
39_40 -1.16

and the graph

Here the positional difference was smaller (although I may graph it in a late post). Overall there appears to be a fairly flat peak between 26-30.

Next up I’d like to investigate aging of some of the more advanced stats (i.e. GVT, relative +/-, etc.)

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