Player Aging Part 1
This will be the first post of a yet to be determined number of posts as I investigate aging curves for various stats. Gabe over at Behind the Net has already done quite a bit of work on this topic, so some of this will be a rehashing of things he’s already investigated. Our methodology differs slightly (honestly his is likely better) so the results, while similar, won’t be the same. For the first pass I chose to use the delta method with no correction for survival bias. What does this mean? I took all players that played both an age 18 and 19 season and calculated their increase/decrease in the various stats. I then calculated the same for all age pairs. Once that’s done I found a weighted average of the increases/decreases for each age pair where the weight is equal to the minimum number of games played between the two ages.
The first stat I chose to look at is pts/game. My input data is 2001-2010. The following table summarizes the results by general position
The table shows the age pair in the first column and then the respective increase/decrease in the other three columns. These numbers seem to indicate a peak around 26. The following graph shows the same data in graphical form
I also ran a similar analysis on average time on ice (ATOI). Here’s the table
and the graph
Here the positional difference was smaller (although I may graph it in a late post). Overall there appears to be a fairly flat peak between 26-30.
Next up I’d like to investigate aging of some of the more advanced stats (i.e. GVT, relative +/-, etc.)